FiveThirtyEight Politics
The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term
A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters
The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes
Donald Trump Wins The Presidency
An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night
The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge
Galen’s Cauldron Of Queries
Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election?
Do Voters Care About Democracy?
The Most Valuable Data Point
How the Diploma Divide Took Over Our Politics
A New Kind Of Undecided Voter
A 538 Election Road Trip
Weighting For Election Day
The Battle For The Airwaves
Beneath A Steady Race, A Shifting America
Vance Performed Well In VP Debate. Will It Matter?
In A Topsy-Turvy World, The Candidates Stick To These Three Issues
How To Read Polls In 2024
Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?
Has Harris Changed The Election For Black Voters?
Gen Z’s Historic Gender Gap
Harris Trolls Defensive Trump In Debate
Presidential Debates Do Matter
From Here To Election Day
Summer Is Over. Election Season Is Here.
How Trump And Harris Would Tackle The Economy
How RFK Jr.'s Exit Changes The Race
Harris Goes Big On Night 4 Of The DNC
Democrats Pitch 'Freedom' On Night 3 Of The DNC
The Obamas Dominate Night 2 Of The DNC
What To Expect From The DNC
Harris Resets The Race For Latino Voters
What Americans Think Of Kamala Harris
Reaction Podcast: Tim Walz Is Harris’ Running Mate
Harris Gains In The Polls
American Politics Has A Respect Crisis
Who Will Harris Pick For VP?
The Harris Campaign Begins
Biden Drops Out
Trump Breaks With RNC Message On Night 4
JD Vance Aims To Reframe The GOP On Night 3 Of The RNC
The GOP Projects Unity On Night 2 Of The RNC
Reaction Podcast: Vance Is Trump’s Running Mate
Making Sense Of Political Violence In America
The Biden Stalemate Continues
Can Biden Hold On?
Exclusive: President Biden Sits Down with ABC News
Making Sense Of A Historic British Election
The Push For A Biden Replacement Becomes Real
Presidential Immunity And More Debate Fallout
Reaction Podcast: A Rough Debate For Biden
What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate
Voters Around The World Are Mad As Hell
2024 Is Going To Be A Vibes Election
How Much AI Regulation Is The Right Amount?
538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up
Mr. Druke Goes to Washington
The First Polls Since Trump’s Guilty Verdict Are In
Reaction Podcast: Trump Found Guilty
The 3 Questions That Will Decide Trump's First Trial
Elections Everywhere All At Once
Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'
Are Americans Tuning Out The 2024 Election?
Why Voters Are Worried About Democracy, In Their Own Words
Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'
The Sun Belt Shifts Away From Biden
Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?
Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'
Will The Protests Over Gaza Affect The 2024 Election?
Why Voters Are Down On The Economy, In Their Own Words
A Tale Of Two Trump Trials
538's New Polling Averages Show Close Presidential Race
Are Mike Johnson’s Days Numbered?
In Trump Trial, Jury Selection Is Part Politics
The Political Stakes Of Trump's First Trial
What's Up With The Kids These Days?
Tim Scott Is The Leading Trump VP Contender
Where Will People Commune In A Godless America?
The Presidential Election Has Become An Unpopularity Contest
Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment?
Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?
538 Debate Club: Should TikTok Be Banned?
How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?
Do Campaign Stops Actually Matter?
Does Gen Z Really Care More About That Viral TikTok Than Politics?
A Very Political State Of The Union
Super Tuesday Brings A Couple Surprises
What To Watch For On Super Tuesday
What To Make Of The Protest Votes In Michigan
After South Carolina Loss, What Is Nikki Haley's Plan?
Foreign Policy Has Become A Family Feud
What Comes Next In Trump's Trials
Democrats Notch A Win In The Battle For The Suburbs
The Political Conversation About Biden's Age
The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election
The Tortured Pundits Department
How Americans Feel About The Economy
Will Politics Or Policy Win Out At The Border?
The GOP Primary Is Basically Over
Is New Hampshire The End Of The GOP Primary?
The View From New Hampshire
Trump Wins Iowa. Now What?
The Last Debate Before Iowa
No Sleep Till Iowa
Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?
There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees… Right?
How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics
Our Presidential Primary System is An Accident
The 538 Podcast Holiday Party
Reaction Podcast: Colorado Supreme Court Bars Trump From Ballot
Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time
Have Progressives Won The Economic Debate?
What To Make Of Trump's 'Dictator' Comment
Did The Fourth Republican Debate Matter?
Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?
2024 Is The First ‘AI Election.’ What Does That Mean?
Why The GOP May Be Ready To Say Goodbye To Santos
What These Swing Voters Have To Say About The 2024 Election
The Fight For Working-Class Voters
If The 2024 Election Were Held Today, Would Trump Win?
Haley Takes On Ramaswamy And DeSantis
The 2023 Elections Were Good For Democrats
Will Kentucky And Mississippi Elect Democrats?
Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
Pence Is Out, Phillips Is In
Our First-Ever House Speaker Draft
How Americans Feel About The War In Israel
War And A Speakerless House
How Washington Avoided A Shutdown
It's Now Or Never For The GOP Candidates
Why Our Politics Are Stuck In 2016
Workers Are Striking And Americans Are Into It
Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color
Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut
Lessons From A Trump-Less Debate
What The GOP Primary Looks Like In The Early States
Three Georgia Law Professors Weigh In On Trump's Indictment
Who Is The Likeliest GOP VP Candidate?
Ohio Voters Weigh In On Abortion (Indirectly)
Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation
July Was Hot As Hell. Do Voters Care?
Who'd Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?
Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden
What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'?
How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election
What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?
Are Millennials Getting More Conservative?
How Trump's Classified Documents Case Could End
Emergency Podcast: Trump's Indictment, The Sequel
The GOP Field Gets Crowded
There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now
The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis
Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?
Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?
Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel
How Immigration Shapes American Politics
Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?
How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live
Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024
Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans?
Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!
The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion
Americans Are Feeling Better These Days
The Politics Of AI
The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday
Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023
Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted
New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?
The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back
The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census
Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998
Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm
The Poll That Ended Dilbert
Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'
How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear
What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection
Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?
American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted
Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech
How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did
The Politics Of Loneliness
There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023
Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing.
What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common
California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy
There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right?
What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP
How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics
Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident
The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump
What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms
Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?
We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022
How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff
Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race